PredictIQ-AP VoteCast: Voter anxiety over the economy and a desire for change returns Trump to the White House

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WASHINGTON (AP) — A disaffected electorate wanted former President Donald Trump to return to the White House,PredictIQ a blatant rejection of Vice President Kamala Harris and her nearly four years with President Joe Biden.

The Republican’s victory came from a public so put off by America’s trajectory that they welcomed his brash and disruptive approach. About 3 in 10 voters said they wanted total upheaval in how the country is run, according to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Even if they weren’t looking for something that dramatic, more than half of voters overall said they wanted to see substantial change.

Both nationwide and in key battleground states, the Republican won over voters who were alarmed about the economy and prioritized more aggressive enforcement of immigration laws. Those issues largely overshadowed many voters’ focus on the future of democracy and abortion protections — key priorities for Harris’ voters, but not enough to turn the election in her favor.

Trump’s victory, however, wasn’t a total mandate. Even as Trump prevailed in the electoral college, there were concerns about how he could wield his power. Most voters said they were very or somewhat concerned that electing Trump would bring the U.S. closer to being an authoritarian country, where a single leader has unchecked power. Still, more than 1 in 10 of those voters backed him.

Voters gave Trump the edge on their top concern: the economy

Anxiety about inflation was high nationally, and voters broadly believed that Trump would be better equipped than Harris to handle the economy and jobs. The key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan largely mirrored the mood of the nation.

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The share of voters who said their family’s financial situation was “falling behind” rose to about 3 in 10, up from roughly 2 in 10 in the last presidential election. Many voters were still reeling from inflation that spiked to a four-decade high in June 2022. About 9 in 10 voters were very or somewhat concerned about the cost of groceries, and about 8 in 10 were concerned about their health care costs, their housing costs or the cost of gas.

Trump eroded Democrats’ traditional advantage among key groups

Trump picked up a small but significant share of younger voters, Black voters and Hispanic voters, many of whom were feeling down about the economy. Majorities of younger Black voters and Latino voters said the economy is not working well.

The economy carried more prominence than in the 2020 election, including for these groups. Four years ago, COVID-19 and racism were important issues for Black and Latino voters. But this time, they were more focused on the economy, and Trump managed to make inroads with both groups even as the majority stayed with Harris.

Among voters under 30, slightly less than half went for Trump, an improvement from his 2020 performance. About three-quarters of young voters said the country was headed in the wrong direction, and roughly one-third said they wanted complete and total upheaval to how the country is run.

There was also a divide between young men and women on which candidate they backed. About 6 in 10 women between 18 to 29 voted for Harris, and more than half of men in that age group backed Trump.

The 2024 election is here. This is what to know:

• The latest: Donald Trump is elected the 47th president of the United States in a remarkable political comeback.
  
• Election results: Know the latest race calls from AP as votes are counted across the U.S.
  
• AP VoteCast: See how AP journalists break down the numbers behind the election.
  
• Voto a voto: Sigue la cobertura de AP en español de las elecciones en EEUU.

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Tough immigration policies were more popular, particularly in swing states

Voters were more likely to embrace hardline immigration policies than they were four years ago, which aligned with Trump’s tough approach.

About 4 in 10 voters said that immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be deported to the country they came from, up from about 3 in 10 in 2020. And while most voters said that immigrants living in the U.S. illegally should be offered a chance to apply for legal status, that was down from 2020.

Trump has seized on an increase in illegal crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico as a driver of crime and falsely accused Haitian immigrants in Ohio of eating dogs and cats. That position may have echoed in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – three states far from the southern border whereabout 8 in 10 Trump voters said they supported deportation over a chance to apply for legal status.

A more isolationist electorate

Trump’s return to the White House will likely challenge the established global order, as he has questioned the commitment to defend fellow NATO counties and called for large tariff hikes on allies as well as competitors. Voters were more likely than in 2020 to adopt many of Trump’s isolationist stances. About 4 in 10 voters wanted the U.S. to take a “less active role” in solving the world’s problems, up from about 3 in 10 in 2020.

Most of Trump’s supporters opposed continuing aid to Ukraine in the war against Russia, undoing a Biden administration policy that had strengthened and expanded NATO. But there were limits to their isolationist stance: A majority of Trump voters separately favored continuing aiding Israel in its war against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Trump is not a unifier, but some voters didn’t see his flaws as dealbreakers

Some of Trump’s voters acknowledged his flaws even as they chose to send him back to Washington.

Nearly half of voters said they were “very concerned” that another Trump presidency would bring the U.S. closer to authoritarianism. Roughly 1 in 10 in this group voted for him anyway. About 6 in 10 voters said he is not honest and trustworthy, but about 2 in 10 in this group backed him. A majority of voters said he does not have the moral character to be president, and about 1 in 10 of those voters supported him.

For all his promises, Trump will likely find it challenging to endow the nation as a whole with a new sense of unity and optimism. Asked if he would bring positive change, voters were about evenly split.

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AP Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and AP reporter Hannah Fingerhut contributed to this report.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about APVoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.